Prediction Market
Beta. A Conductor App Store app, available to any authenticated user.
What you ask it
- “Model this market for me: <Polymarket URL>.”
- “What does the simulation think the odds are on this Kalshi market, and where does it disagree with the market?”
- “Pull up that market I modeled earlier.”
How it works
- Fetch (free). The Conductor reads the market’s question, outcomes, and the market’s implied odds. Inspecting a market costs nothing.
- Model. It runs a branching Timepoint simulation over the outcomes and returns the model’s probability read for each, with an uncertainty band.
- Compare. It lays the model’s read next to the market’s implied odds and flags a meaningful disagreement only when the result is large, robust, and grounded.
The honesty stance
This app is deliberately careful about what it claims, and the Conductor echoes these rules every time it narrates a result:- It’s the model’s read — never “true odds.” The numbers are what a simulation estimates, presented as an opinion, not a statement of real-world probability.
- Always a band, never a single number. Results come with an uncertainty range (a p50→p90 band), never collapsed to a false-precision point estimate.
- An “edge” is flagged sparingly. A disagreement with the market is called an actionable edge only when it’s large, robust, and well-grounded — otherwise it’s just noise.
- An undefined simulation says so. If the simulation can’t produce a meaningful distribution, the Conductor tells you it’s undefined rather than inventing numbers.
Polymarket markets work out of the box. Kalshi support may require configuration; if a Kalshi market isn’t reachable, the Conductor tells you so rather than guessing.